Variants of Uncertainty | Articles

Known unknowns: A critical determinant of confidence and calibration.

Walters, D.J., Fernbach, P.M., Fox, C.R. & Sloman, S.A. (2017). Management Science, 63, 4298-4307.

Comment on Løhre & Teigen, “There is a 60% probability, but I am 70% certain:
Communicative consequences of external and internal expressions of uncertainty”.

Fox, C.R. & Ülkümen, G. (2017). Thinking & Reasoning, 23, 483-491.

Judgment extremity and accuracy under epistemic vs. aleatory uncertainty.

Tannenbaum, D., Fox, C.R., & Ülkümen, G. (2017). Management Science, 63, 497-518.

Two dimensions of subjective uncertainty: Clues from natural language.

Ülkümen, G., Fox, C.R., & Malle, B.F. (2016). Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145, 1280-1297. (Named Best Publication in Decision Analysis 2016, INFORMS).

Variants of Uncertainty | Book Chapters

Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty. Chapter 1 in Brun, W., Keren, G., Kirkebøen, G. & Montgomery, H. (Eds.).

Fox, C.R. and Ülkümen, G. (2011). Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.

Variants of Uncertainty | Working Papers

Investment under epistemic versus aleatory uncertainty.

Walters, D.J., Ülkümen, G., Erner, C., Tannenbaum, D. & Fox, C.R. Working Paper, INSEAD.

The Epistemic-Aleatory Rating Scale (EARS) in judgment and choice.

Fox, C.R., Tannenabaum, D., Ülkümen, G., Walters, D. & Erner, C. Manuscript in preparation, UCLA Anderson School.